Publisher's Synopsis
The cost including opportunity cost, BAU (business as usual) income, contingency cost, and other customer losses would become all-impending expense of corona that is hard to quote in number because the global economy has definitely lost what it cannot fathom and there is no other planet against whose species we can compare to know the global advancements that could be made during the lot of time and space lost in corona lockdown or afterwards. The world will wobble for support after this lockdown period comes to an end. Demand and supply would behave like dotted lines, markets would be anything better than dashes and the worst flowing would be the company cashes.Countries have been confirmed to improve their tourism industries, foreign relations, local heritage, anti pollution results, literacy levels, standard of living, employment growth, foreign currency reserve, foreign investment, business competition, anti crime initiatives, healthcare ( for infant mortality reduction, women hygiene, senior citizen care, poor people), gender parity, racial homogeneity, gay rights, drug addiction reduction, trade dumping reduction, to space debris reduction and extra terrestrial space research. The globe is in the huge network of to-do lists. We have to but we don't need more problems.Markets have to be respected and as efficient markets would not let us believe people we have to go by security and stock prices to understand the change in true value of underlying assets though corona lockdown period has seen swing on prices (today's fall is followed by tomorrow's rise, don't trade when we have a crisis, secrets are anyway leaked), whether weak or semi strong or strong companies. Price is a form of expected value of dividends that reflect the true value of the stocks. Though all theories seem to apply or no theory seems to work during the crisis, corona collapse sends the public information to the difficult capital market when cynicism leads to erratic investment patterns, unusual investor community behavior and misleading signals. Investors buy more stocks because of low price-earnings ratio but at the same time skeptical about the performance of the company in future. What's the scenario if there does not exist any dividend, why would anybody buy such a share under zero price scenario? It's still common for startups not to pay dividends but not accumulate capital gains. Selling short is a common strategy in crisis and though the lockdown is a possibility for the entire year of 2020, probably beyond, if proper checks are not brought in place, it may be possible that business may get bad performance, markets would be in trouble, brokers may wait for luck, price can't be predicted even if earning and price fall, because so many people are looking at the markets where some are more knowledgeable than others. The traditional formula of random walk theory seems to hold true still because the best forecast is not in bias but speculation in crazy markets is optimal prediction. The situation is unforecastable when it reaches somewhere but expected to go elsewhere. The various stock price indexes get reorganized to the dismay of investors as a crisis world depends on patterns, illusion and unknown forces. The 1929 crash was a big one. It was not a random walk but a pure chance, totally unpredictable or unprecedented. Bear markets would have bad luck as stocks don't trade fresh. It is a random walk even if we have an autoregressive model without going back much anywhere as if the stock market is tethered to the anchors as if new noise pulls back or up, the price to mean taking back on trend. The globe is expected to witness such a scenario after the corona lockdown period and forecasting is a must for expert stock professional communities to prepare now for more demand prediction or supply revival by responsible industrialist communities but changes in the prices are more real-time and riches don't come easy.
