Publisher's Synopsis
China's process of modernizing its armed forces has involved the development of indigenously designed weapons systems-some of which appeared to undergo a process of development, procurement, and/or deployment that outpaced the estimates of U.S. and other foreign observers. This paper specifically focuses on four key weapons platforms that have been discussed as "surprise" developments to U.S. analysts: Type 039A/B/041 (Yuan-class) diesel-electric attack submarine, SC-19 anti-satellite (ASAT) system, Dongfeng-21D (DF-21D/CSS-5) anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), Jian-20 (J-20) stealth fighter aircraft. This report examines each of these purported "surprise" military developments in detail, and seeks to provide a clearer picture as to whether or not U.S. officials and analysts have demonstrated a pattern of underestimating the speed and depth of Chinese military development.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.Contents: Indigenous Weapons Development in China's Military Modernization * Executive Summary * Section 1: The Yuan Class Submarine * Section 2: The Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Missile System * Section 3: The Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) * Section 4: The J-20 Fighter * ConclusionsThe History and Development of Yuan-Class Submarines - Prior to designing and implementing domestic submarines, China imported a majority of its submarine technology from Russia. The first indigenous diesel submarine, the Ming-class, was first launched in 1971; it was based on the Soviet Romeo-class submarine. The second domestically designed submarine, the Song-class, was first launched in 1994. China also bought Russian-designed Kilo-class submarines throughout the 1990s and 2000s. The Yuan-class submarines (Figure 1) share characteristics of both Russian Kilo-class and Chinese indigenous submarines (e.g., Song-class) and "are armed similarly to the Song-class SS."
