Publisher's Synopsis
Dr. Roby Barrett's sweeping study of Yemen's historical legacy and its current social, economic, and political systems is essential reading for all who would seek to understand the challenges to U.S. security interests in southern Arabia and reassess current U.S. strategy in light of recent turmoil there. Knowledge of the political, economic, social, and cultural context is fundamental to the development of a realistic counterinsurgency strategy based on the possible and affordable as opposed to the ideological or theoretical. Whatever the immediate or tactical outcome, Dr. Barrett argues that the ultimate outcome in Yemen is most likely not in doubt. The central theme of Dr. Barrett's monograph is that in Yemen, power is based on family, clan, and tribal relationships and not a national identity. Dr. Barrett builds the case that Yemen as a nation-state is a fiction that largely resides in the minds of Western bureaucrats and analysts. Central authority has been maintained only in balance with tribal, sectarian, and political groups that align with central leaders based on a system of patronage. He advises that throughout Yemen's history there always have been "multiple Yemens with fundamental social, cultural, and sectarian differences" and to view Yemen differently creates a "stumbling block" in the way of developing and executing coherent policy and strategy. Lines on a map do not constitute a nation-state. Whoever rules Yemen today faces significant challenges beyond maintaining power by political juggling. There is an insurgency in Sa'ada Governorate by Huthi rebels, who are Zaydi Shi'a upset with government policy, but a different Zaydi clan and tribe from that of the Hashid al-Ahmars and Saleh himself. Some Huthi are ideologically motivated, others are armed groups with financial motivations, and still others are motivated to defend their land and heritage. There is also an active protest movement in the south where coastal Sunni Shafais are upset with the governance of Saleh and his Shi'a Zaydis from the interior highlands.1 Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a threat in Yemen, leverages Yemen's loosely governed rural areas for its training and staging activities. But AQAP is viewed far more seriously by the United States and its Western allies than by many in Sana'a government, which has been able to live and come to terms with the AQAP presence for extended periods. In addition, Saudi Arabia views Yemen's instability as a x threat that requires a strategic in-depth defense. As a result, the Kingdom has played a strong role in Yemeni affairs, principally through the patronage of northern tribes, the Sunni tribes and factions in the south and east, and various Yemeni politicians. Although problematic at times, this involvement has by and large protected both Saudi and Western interests. From a Western perspective, the United States has an interest in countering and containing AQAP in Yemen. U.S. policy objectives toward Yemen are "to strengthen the Government of Yemen's ability to promote security and minimize the threat from violent extremists; and to bolster its capacity to provide basic services and good governance." 2 "Our ... strategy seeks to address the root causes of instability and improve governance." 3 But beyond U.S. concern for AQAP, Dr. Barrett points out that the Yemenis understand full well that U.S. strategic interests in Yemen are "tangential to other political and strategic interests." The insights provided in Yemen: A Different Political Paradigm In Context plus recent events in Yemen suggest that the time is ripe to reconsider U.S. approaches toward Yemen. Dr. Barrett suggests that Yemen cannot be transformed. Good governance, as Western nations would define it, is most likely unachievable. Our policy must deal with multiple Yemens with conflicting historical, political, economic, and cultural heritages.
