Publisher's Synopsis
Do you want to understand Bayes' theorem as well as apply its principles in your everyday life? You must first master the concept of probability. Probability is the likelihood that something will happen, describing such things as the chances of you drawing a specific card, say an ace, from a deck of playing cards. There are a simple ways to calculate such probabilities using the information you have in front of you, however Bayesian probability takes this one step further by incorporating previously known information to inform these calculations. Probability and Bayes theorem is present everywhere in many of the different things that we carry out throughout the day, such as Googling the internet, applying spam filters, machine learning, and so much more. This book aims to help build a foundation for the understanding of Bayes' theorem using a step-by-step method that introduces the various elements of probability before approaching the theorem itself. Understanding these sometimes rather complex concepts is made very easy with the use of several examples and everyday applications of probability. You will find that being in possession of a solid understanding of the ideas related to and applications of both probability and Bayes' theorem in particular will assist you in comprehending and indeed engaging with some of the ways that these concepts are used today, including practical examples like "We want to go for a picnic but it is cloudy. Is it likely to rain?" or "What are the chances that someone has an allergy?" or even "In a zombie apocalypse, how likely is my test kit to determine whether someone is really infected?." So what are you waiting for, let us start delving into the fascinating and useful world of probabilities!
