Publisher's Synopsis
This is the fifteenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook and the fifth time it has been prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This edition covers the outlook for commodity markets during the 2009 to 2018 period, and brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations. The report analyses world market trends for the main agricultural products, as well as biofuels. It provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of the included commodities. Looking forward, real commodity prices over the 2009-18 period are projected to remain at, or above the 1997-2006 average, the period just before the recent price hikes. An expected economic recovery, renewed food demand growth from developing countries and the emerging biofuel markets are the key drivers underpinning agricultural commodity prices and markets over the medium term.The projections and past trends are presented in the statistical annex, and can be viewed in more detail at the website www.agri-outlook.org. This edition of the Outlook was prepared in a period of unprecedented financial market turmoil and rapidly deteriorating global economic prospects. Because macroeconomic conditions are changing so quickly, this report complements the standard baseline projections with an analysis of revised short-term GDP prospects and alternative GDP recovery paths. Lower GDP scenarios result in lower commodity prices, with reductions in crop and biofuel prices about one-half those for livestock products. A sensitivity analysis to highly uncertain crude oil prices shows the important links between energy and agricultural prices. The Outlook also reports on a survey of various actors in the agri-food chain in terms of the current impacts of the global economic crisis and credit market constraints. The issue of food security and the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the rising demand for food remains very high on the international political agenda. This report provides a brief overview of critical factors such as land availability, productivity gains, water usage and climate change, and suggests that agricultural production could be significantly increased, provided there is sufficient investment in research, infrastructure and technological change, particularly in developing countries.
