Forecasting Terrorism

Forecasting Terrorism Indicators and Proven Analytic Techniques

Paperback (07 Dec 2004)

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Synopsis

Terrorist attacks happen after years of careful planning; however, these plans always leave a trail of activities-a road map to the terrorists' forthcoming actions. These indicators include terrorist travel, movement of weapons, training, target surveillance, and tests of security. This guidebook identifies 68 such indicators and shows how to analyze them using a step-by-step explanation. It also includes safeguards against 38 of the 42 common warning pitfalls that experts have identified. That analysis then yields warnings that can prevent attacks and save lives. The methodology can be applied to any intelligence topic (not just terrorism) by simply changing the list of indicators. Warning failures are rarely due to inadequate collection; they are more frequently due to intelligence that has been ignored because it is delivered with weak analysis. With this model, author Sundri Khalsa brings sophisticated analysis methodology to security forces everywhere, promising a safer world. The accompanying CD-ROM provides a website display that is the interface to this forecasting system. It also includes a 45-minute video that describes the methodology step-by-step using the website display. This methodology was characterized by the Unit Chief of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Counterterrorism Threat Monitoring Unit as "light-years ahead," while officials in the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) have identified this system as "the bedrock for the evolving approach to terrorism analysis," and an "unprecedented forecasting model." This guide will be of interest to policy makers, journalists, police authorities, and concerned citizens.

Book information

ISBN: 9780810850170
Publisher: Scarecrow Press
Imprint: The Scarecrow Press
Pub date:
DEWEY: 363.320112
DEWEY edition: 22
Language: English
Number of pages: 103
Weight: 292g
Height: 179mm
Width: 254mm
Spine width: 9mm