Publisher's Synopsis
An excellent Guide of Delphi Method. The 'Delphi method' ( ) is a organized information exchange method, initially elaborated as a methodical, two-way predicting approach that depends on a panel of specialists.Norman Dalkey, Olaf Helmer (1963) An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the employ of specialists. Management Science, 9(3), Apr 1963, pp 458-467Bernice B. Brown (1968). Delphi Process: A Methodology Used aimed at the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts.: An earliest document issued by RAND (Document No: P-3925, 1968, 15 pages)Sackman, H. (1974), Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process, R-1283-PR, April 1974. Brown, Thomas, An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting, R-944-ARPA, 1972 The specialists reply questionnaires in 2 either further rounds. After every one round, a organizer delivers an unnamed synopsis of the experts' predictions as of the foregoing round as well like the rationales they presented for their discernments. Thus, specialists are inspired to reconsider their earliest replies in light of the answers of different participants of their panel. It is assumed that throughout this procedure the span of the replies tend to reduce and the cluster must meet in the direction of the right reply. Finally, the procedure is halted following a pre-defined halt standard (e.g. Numeral of rounds, attainment of consensus, solidity of results) and the mean either average scores of the ultimate rounds decide the outcomes.Rowe and Wright (1999): The Delphi method as a predicting tool: subjects and examination. International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 15, Issue 4, October 1999. There has never been a Delphi Method Guide like this.
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