Publisher's Synopsis
Afghan security forces held their own against the insurgency, sustained the gains made in the 2013 fighting season and successfully secured the presidential and provincial council elections on April 5, 2014. Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) capabilities continued to expand during the reporting period, while insurgent territorial influence and kinetic capabilities remained static. The ANSF and Afghan election institutions laid the groundwork for a successful election, registering millions of voters and securing thousands of polling sites, with minimal international assistance. These preparations far surpassed Afghanistan's efforts in the 2009 and 2010 elections. Despite insurgent intent to disrupt the election process, ANSF layered security operations prevented high-profile attacks across the country and voter turnout was high. The large rise in attacks preceding previous Afghan elections did not occur.The Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) remains in control of its 34 provincial capitals and all major cities. Most insurgent-initiated violence still occurs away from populated areas and polling shows the majority of Afghans hold a favorable view of their soldiers and police. While the number of ANSF operations during the reporting period nearly doubled as compared to the same time period the prior year, the ANSF now conduct virtually all of these operations independently. U.S. and coalition casualties significantly dropped in 2013 - a quarter of what they were in 2010. Several violence indicators are lower in this reporting period than they were a year ago, including decreases of 2 percent in enemy-initiated attacks, 8 percent in complex attacks, and 24 percent in improvised explosive device (IED) events.Despite substantial progress, the ANSF continued to face several challenges during the reporting period. ANSF logistics and sustainment capabilities remained underdeveloped, Afghan National Army (ANA) attrition was higher than its target, and corruption continued. Although the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) continues to develop capabilities, ANSF requires more time and effort to close four key high-end capability gaps that will remain after the ISAF mission ends on December 31, 2014: air support; intelligence enterprise; special operations; and Afghan security ministry capacity. International funding and coalition force assistance will be critical to sustaining the force after 2014. If a second-round runoff election is required, securing the runoff during the summer fighting season will be a major test of the ANSF.Opinion polling during the reporting period showed that Afghans remain largely optimistic about their country's trajectory. However, the ANSF's need for post-2014 assistance, the President of Afghanistan's refusal to sign the U.S.-Afghanistan Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), the consequent lack of U.S. and NATO post-2014 presence decisions, and simultaneous political, security, and economic transitions generated uncertainty throughout Afghan society. The Taliban tried to capitalize on Afghan uncertainty and fear of abandonment by the coalition through propaganda, without much success.
