Publisher's Synopsis
As the physical territory held by the group known as the Islamic State diminished in 2016-2017, concern about of the status of the group's "virtual" caliphate increased. This report focuses on one aspect of that virtual caliphate: the production of visual propaganda by the group's official media bureaus. Using a dataset of more than 13,000 pieces of official visual propaganda distributed from January 2015 to June 2018, this report examines how the production of such pieces has changed over this timeframe in terms of the number of pieces distributed, the geographic dynamics associated with the production of propaganda, and the content featured in these products. Through the course of this examination, several key findings emerge: Official visual propaganda production has decreased significantly: According to the CTC's collection criteria, August 2015 represented the high-water mark for the production of official visual propaganda, -with 754 releases. The low-point occurred in June 2018, -with 44 releases. This represents a 94-percent decrease in visual propaganda production. It is important to note that this decrease does not account for non-visual production such as text-only tweets. Despite the decrease, fluctuation in visual propaganda production is likely to continue: At the macro level, production rebounded slightly in January 2018 before falling off again. This follows a more sustained rebound in production that occurred in late 2016. At the local media bureau level, increases and decreases have occurred quite frequently.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.1. Introduction * 2. Trendlines from 30,000 Feet: Overall Statistics of Official Media Releases * 3. Media Martyrs: The Impact of Personnel Losses * 4. The Issue of "Quality" * 5. Geographic Dynamics * 6. Conclusion
