The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise The Art and Science of Prediction

Paperback (18 Apr 2013) | English

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Synopsis

The International Bestseller by 'The Galileo of number crunchers' (Independent)

Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society. The rise of 'big data' has the potential to help us predict the future, yet much of it is misleading, useless or distracting.

In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can all learn to detect the true signals amid a noise of data.

'Remarkable and rewarding' Matthew D'Ancona, Sunday Telegraph

'A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically' Guardian

About the Publisher

Penguin Books

Penguin Books

The first ten paperback Penguin books appeared in 1935 costing 6d each (the price of a packet of cigarettes). Since then the Penguin list has developed enormously, but still aims to bring the best writing to the widest possible audience. Penguin Paperbacks now range from Booker Prize-winning contemporary authors, to mass market bestsellers, with successful history, biography and general non-fiction as well.

Book information

ISBN: 9780141975658
Publisher: Penguin Books Ltd
Imprint: Penguin Books
Pub date:
DEWEY: 303.49
DEWEY edition: 23
Language: English
Sales rank: 10151
Number of pages: 534
Weight: 366g
Height: 197mm
Width: 130mm
Spine width: 29mm